EUR/USD outlook

Technically, the EUR/USD may have reached its top as the 61.8% fibonacci retracement of the range 1.6040/1.2329 at 1.4842 (even though the key resistance is 1.4867) and could now go for a dip back into the 1.2s (albeit some resistance on the way).

On the fundamental side, the EUR is again now over-valued. Besides, in a recent report, the OECD wrote:

"The reform of global exchange rate regimes and the dollar reserve currency problem is extremely important, but is also unlikely to be achieved any time soon." From The Financial Crisis and the Requirements of Reform - Adrian Blundell-Wignall

The USD is therefore strengthened in its position as a reserve currency in the medium term.
In terms of financial regulations, the G20 has clearly achieved nothing but a bunch of populistic tricks that will have no consequence whatsoever, and as explained in the OECD report, this should lead to a sluggish recovery, especially in Europe and USA.
In this context, the recent rise of the EUR, upshot of an early enthusiasm, should be short-lived, as the reality of national deficits, progressing unemployment, limited credit and falling consumption will set in.

Internationalization of the Yuan

Today, the Bank of China Chairman Xiao Gang announced the beginning of a scheme to internationalize the Chinese Yuan. The immediate real effect of this declaration will be relatively mild, this internationalization will only concern trading relationships with south-east asian countries, but we can expect a psychological effect on the exchange rate of the Yuan, and therefore a trade shorting USD against the CNY seems possible.

On a more fundamental point of view, the Yuan is still very far from being a reserve currency, but given the geopolitical situation, and the weakening of US economy, the environment is certainly propitious for China to undertake such measures in the direction of a strengthening of the Yuan and basically an affirmation of its real weight in the world economy. Clearly, until now, China has been relying on US consumption to boost its economy, with this consumption currently falling (and still far from bottoming), China would be well-inspired to develop its domestic consumption and that supposes a strengthening of the Yuan.

For more details, see Reuters, insiderNews,...etc.

A trading strategy using the Fractal dimension

On this forum, somebody is proposing an Expert Advisor for MT4, with an automated strategy to enter the market that uses the Fractal Dimension.

I believe some improvements can be made, and I have shared my thoughts on the thread itself, and will continue to do so as it develops.

About technical analysis

Let me start by precising how I understand Technical Analysis, its value and limitations.

I don't believe Technical Analysis alone encompasses all that there is to know about trading. Foremostly, to me, TA is a tool, that provides the trader with some kind of knowledge, and this, in turn may help him to decide about what trade to take and when to act upon it (when to enter it and when to exit it).
On this site, I want to explore the value of this knowledge, and how to make the best use of it.

Ultimately though, the decision taking is a psychological process, TA can just amount to a valuable input in it, along with knowledge of relevant fundamentals, as well as some level of intuition.
TA, clearly, is subjective, and as such, there certainly is a lot to discuss as to what one can gain (and how can he gain it) from its practise.

One last precision: As a FOREX trader, I don't really care about Volumes, which are an important component when it comes to stocks, but have much less relevance in an OTC market.