Friday, September 5, 2008

Who is selling the EUR?

Today saw some remarkable activity in the EUR rates.
This morning at about 10:15(CT), there was a sudden drop of about 50PIPS on the EUR/USD, then at 13:18, -30PIPS in less than a minute, and at 16:12, more than a 100PIPs drop in less than 5 minutes, clearly some big accounts are liquidating their EUR reserves.
All this may find an explanation in the remarks from Juncker about the EUR still being over-valued.

During the same time, the DJ dropped by 344 points, so the US stock market does not seem relevant with regards to the current movements of the USD, stronger forces seem to be at play here.

This certainly invalidates my earlier analysis that linked the future of the USD to the US economy, and especially to the unfolding of the current crisis. At least for now, the market appears to follow the consensus of the central banks in working towards a strengthening of the USD against the EUR, or rather towards the general weakening of the EUR.
As for today at about 5PM CT, the EUR has lost about 300 PIPs against the USD, and about 600 PIPS against the JPY. Interestingly the USD also dropped by about 250PIPs against the JPY. Japan seems to be at the heart of the matter in these movements.

The big question is up to which level this weakening will continue ? I, for now, expect to see it going towards the 1.3, or even 1.2 USD mark, if the current logic is respected. At this level, we shall see what the EU deciders say about the overvaluation of the EUR.